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Hot Stock Industry For 2005 will be: The Internet Again.
Adapted from article published October 11, 2004
The Internet content field got plenty of attention the last six months. The
reason? Google, Google and more Google.
The Web search company's $1.6 billion initial public offering brought more
publicity and investor attention to the sector than it's seen since the dot-com
boom.
Google took the unusual step of selling shares via an Internet Dutch auction. It
launched the bidding with a price range of $108-$135 a share. A few days later
the company dropped the range to $85-$95 a share. It then debuted with an
offering price of $85.
The shaky start didn't scare off investors. Today the stock trades around 138 a
share.
Search companies like Google, Yahoo, Ask Jeeves and InfoSpace are among the
strongest firms in the Internet content sector. Other top performers include
research company Jupitermedia and Shanda Interactive Entertainment, a Chinese
online games company.
Profit took a back seat to growth during the dot-com boom. These days, the
industry's top companies are in the black. They include Google, Yahoo, Jupiter
and Shanda. (For more on Jupitermedia, see story on this page.)
Others such as online news company CNet Networks have posted a few profitable
quarters, but aren't out of the red just yet. Homestore, which helps buyers find
homes, is expected to squeeze out a small profit in the fourth quarter.
Other companies are further away. LookSmart, another search company, isn't
profitable. Neither is eDiets.com, which provides health information to dieters,
or Edgar Online, a source of financial information.
What's more, only 18 of the 39 companies in the group are trading above 10 a
share.
Internet content is growing, but many companies are still diamonds in the rough
- at best. "So far, it's kind of spotty in terms of where the successes
are," said Martin Pyykkonen, analyst for investment bank Janco Partners.
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3. Climate
Most analysts agree that Internet content is hot.
One reason? More people are online. Better than 75% of U.S. residents use the
Internet vs. 66.9% in 2000, says a new study by the University of Southern
California.
But not all Net content companies are the same.
Edgar Online, which isn't profitable, sells subscriptions to financial
information that is widely available for free on company Web sites. That's a
major flaw in the business model, says Pyykkonen.
"Why would I go there and pay for content that I could get on a company's
Web site that they are required to put there?" he said.
Investors haven't shown much interest in LookSmart, another search company. The
stock trades near 1.50 a share.
It isn't profitable and doesn't have the same consumer loyalty that other search
engines enjoy.
Advertisers could spend less to advertise on LookSmart, but it likely wouldn't
be worth it, says Pyykkonen. "It's one of those things where the strong
gets stronger because of the reach," he said.
The growth of high-speed Internet access has helped boost Web content services.
Speedy Net access makes it easier to watch video or download music online.
So far, online dating is the leading paid content service, but the growth is
leveling off.
Increased broadband use means more downloads of music, movies and games, says
Michael Zimbalist, president of OPA.
"As people get broadband and then you spend more time with stuff that's fun
and relaxing - that plays into these trends," he said.
4. Technology
Yahoo, Jeeves, Google and others are scrambling to improve their core search
services.
The latest gambit is local search, which helps consumers find goods and services
close to where they live.
Google also is working on building new revenue sources. One example is the
company's online shopping service called Froogle.
Other companies are getting into the act. AT&T Wireless offers a service
that lets consumers download songs to a cell phone.
Companies aren't standing still, says Jonathan Hurd, analyst for Adventis, a
consulting firm.
"There is a lot of activity right now," he said. "A lot of
companies are trying new innovations."
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5. Outlook
The Internet has emerged as a full-fledged advertising medium.
Consumers prefer to find information about products and music online vs. in
magazines, says a recent OPA survey.
"Experienced Internet users are watching less TV and spending less time
with newspapers and magazines," said OPA's Zimbalist.
Internet content companies are also attracting more venture fund investing.
In the first half of the year, Internet content and e-commerce companies in the
U.S. received $591.6 million in financing. That compares with $984.7 million for
all of last year, says the National Venture Capital Association.
Upside: Search companies likely will continue to flourish. Consumers and
advertisers have come to rely on search engines to find and promote products.
Other content sites like CNet are slowly becoming profitable because advertisers
are getting the message that many have specific audiences, says Garrity.
"If you can add a sufficient amount of (content) depth, you can start
getting advertiser interest," he said.
The continued rollout of speedy broadband Internet service also will help
content companies sell more video ads, programs and other media online.
Risks: A shakeout could be coming to search companies. In addition to the
publicly held search firms, a crop of young upstarts looks to top Google.
Successful Internet content firms, meanwhile, are seen by some as the flavor of
the month. There's no guarantee that what sells today will sell tomorrow, says
Heidi Roizen, managing director for Mobius Venture Capital.
"Success in content is very ephemeral," she said. "It's very
difficult to predict what is going to be a hit and what is not going to be a
hit."
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